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Today's Best Player Props

Free picks with real edge. Our AI analyzes thousands of props to find the plays worth making.

Snapshot of MLB picks published — live picks load automatically and refresh every 30 minutes.
1
Casey Mize
Under 5.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed
DET
Elite #1
DET @ OAK Fri, Jul 31, 9:40 PM ET
58% Odds to Hit
5% Edge
-110
80% in last 10
Key Insight

Mize has stayed under 5.5 hits in 11 of his last 13 starts—an 85% clip that's the kind of consistency casual bettors ignore when they see a season average of 4.0. Detroit's rotation is gutted with Fl…

Recent Form Hit 5 straight Unders
Prop Analysis Hit 8 of last 10
Line: 5.5
L5 5.0
L10 4.5
Season 4.0
Factor Breakdown
Recent Usage Trends
-6.3
Game Context
-2.7
Current Form
-1.0
Head-to-Head Performance
0.0
Opponent Defensive Ranking
0.0
2
Michael Wacha
Under 6.5 Pitcher Hits Allowed
KC
Elite #2
KC @ COL Fri, Jul 31, 8:40 PM ET
56% Odds to Hit
6% Edge
-115
60% in last 10
Key Insight

Wacha has stayed under 6.5 hits in four straight starts—a perfect 100% clip that signals real control, not variance. He's averaging exactly 6.0 hits allowed over his last five outings, sitting right…

Recent Form Hit 4 straight Unders
Prop Analysis Hit 6 of last 10
Line: 6.5
L5 6.0
L10 6.0
Season 6.0
Factor Breakdown
MLB Park Factor - Weather Unavailable
-5.0
Game Context
-3.2
Opponent Defensive Ranking
-2.0
Head-to-Head Performance
0.0
Recent Usage Trends
0.0
3
Michael Wacha
Under 3.5 Pitcher Earned Runs
KC
Elite #3
KC @ COL Fri, Jul 31, 8:40 PM ET
56% Odds to Hit
6% Edge
-115
60% in last 10
Key Insight

Wacha has stayed under 3.5 earned runs in his last three straight starts, and that consistency matters more than game-to-game noise. His season average sits at 2.0 earned runs per start, which sits a…

Recent Form Hit 3 straight Unders
Prop Analysis Hit 6 of last 10
Line: 3.5
L5 2.0
L10 2.5
Season 2.0
Factor Breakdown
Current Form
+6.0
MLB Park Factor - Weather Unavailable
-5.0
Game Context
-3.2
Opponent Defensive Ranking
-2.0
Head-to-Head Performance
0.0

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What Each Metric Means

Odds to Hit
Our model's calculated probability this prop wins. Factors in player averages, recent form, matchups, and historical performance.
Edge %
The mathematical advantage over the sportsbook. A 10% edge means our true probability is 10 points higher than implied odds.
Hit Rate
How often this player has gone over/under this line recently. "4/5 L5" means they've hit 4 of their last 5 games.

Frequently Asked Questions

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Our AI analyzes thousands of player props across NFL, NBA, NHL, and MLB to find bets with mathematical edge. We calculate true probability using historical data, matchup analysis, and market inefficiencies.

How often are picks updated?

Picks refresh every 15 minutes with live odds. This page auto-updates every 5 minutes so you always see current data.

Why only 15 picks?

These are our top value plays. Full access to all 100+ daily props with AI analysis is available to TrueEdge members.

Does high edge mean it will hit?

No. Edge indicates mathematical value, not certainty. A prop with 75% odds to hit is still expected to lose 25% of the time. The goal is positive expected value over many bets.

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