What makes this calculator "Smart"?
Most parlay calculators just show you the money. We show you the reality. Parlays are high-risk bets because the probabilities multiply against you, often faster than the payout increases.
True Probability vs. Implied Probability
Consider a standard 3-leg parlay where each leg is -110 (52.38% implied probability).
- True Probability of Winning: 50% * 50% * 50% = 12.5%
- Implied Probability of Payout (+595): 1 / 6.95 = 14.3%
- The Difference: That 1.8% gap is the sportsbook's edge. Multiplied over millions of bets, it's a gold mine for them.
Our calculator shows you this "Implied Probability" so you can decide if the risk is truly worth the reward.
The Secret Weapon: Correlation
The only way to consistently beat parlays is through Correlation. This is when the outcome of one leg increases the probability of another leg winning.
Example: If Patrick Mahomes throws for 300+ yards, it is highly correlated that Travis Kelce will also have a good game. Betting these together increases your true win probability without lowering your payout.
How to Use This Tool
- Enter your Wager Amount.
- Add the odds for each "Leg" of your parlay (e.g., -110, +150).
- Watch the Implied Probability drop as you add more legs. Evaluate if the payout is worth the risk!
Frequently Asked Questions
How do parlay odds work?
Parlay odds are calculated by converting American odds to decimal odds, multiplying them together, and converting back. This compounding effect is why payouts can get huge quickly.
What is a Round Robin?
A Round Robin is a way to create multiple smaller parlays from a larger list of teams. For example, if you pick 3 teams, a Round Robin might create three separate 2-team parlays. This reduces risk because you can still win money even if one leg loses.
Are parlays bad bets?
Generally, yes. Sportsbooks hold a higher "hold" (profit margin) on parlays than straight bets. However, correlated parlays can be +EV if the correlation is strong enough.
Build Smarter Parlays with Correlated Props
The secret to winning parlays isn't luck, it's Correlation. TrueEdge finds props that are likely to happen together.
Find Correlated Plays