How to Beat the "Cash Out" Trap
The "Cash Out" button is one of the most profitable features for sportsbooks. Why? Because the amount they offer you is almost always significantly lower than the True Mathematical Value of your ticket.
This calculator helps you find the hidden value. It compares your offer to the "Fair Value"—the amount your ticket is actually worth based on the current live odds.
The Math: How we calculate "Fair Value"
Transparency is key. Here is the formula we use:
Example: You have a $100 ticket that pays $500. There is one game left. The live odds for your team are -110 (52.4% win probability).
- Potential Payout: $500
- True Probability: 0.524
- Fair Value: $500 × 0.524 = $262
If the sportsbook offers you $220, they are taking a $42 cut (about 16%). That is a bad deal. You should hold or hedge.
The Better Option: Hedging
If you want to lock in profit, don't just click "Cash Out". Often, you can guarantee more money by Hedging—placing a bet on the other side at a different sportsbook.
Our calculator automatically checks this for you. If a hedge is available that pays more than the cash out offer, we will show you exactly how much to bet on the other side to guarantee a win-win scenario.
Frequently Asked Questions
Should I cash out my bet?
Mathematically, almost never. The Cash Out offer includes a "vig" (fee). However, if the offer is higher than the Fair Value (rare), or if the life-changing money outweighs the math, it can be the right personal decision.
Why is my Cash Out offer suspended?
Sportsbooks suspend cash outs when something significant happens in the game (a penalty, review, or big play) or when the odds are moving too fast for their algorithm to calculate a profitable offer for them.
Is Hedging risk-free?
Hedging is low-risk but not zero-risk. The main risk is that odds change while you are placing the hedge bet, or that a "push" (tie) occurs which might void one bet but lose the other depending on rules. Always check sportsbook house rules.