Hedging Strategies Explained
1. Equal Profit Strategy
This is the classic hedge. It calculates the exact amount to bet so you walk away with the exact same profit regardless of which side wins.
- Best for: Maximum risk aversion. You want to lock in a guaranteed win.
- Trade-off: You sacrifice the maximum potential payout of your original ticket.
2. Break Even Strategy
This calculates a hedge bet just large enough to cover your original stake if the hedge wins. If your original bet wins, you maximize your profit.
- Best for: "Playing with house money". You strictly want to eliminate the risk of losing money.
- Trade-off: If the hedge wins, you make $0 profit (but lose nothing).
3. Partial Hedge Strategy
Use the slider to hedge a percentage of the "Equal Profit" amount. For example, a 50% hedge locks in half the guaranteed profit while leaving more upside on your original bet.
- Best for: Finding a middle ground between risk and reward.
- Trade-off: You can still lose money (or make less profit) depending on the outcome.
When You Shouldn't Hedge
- Hedging reduces your expected value (you pay vig on both bets).
- If your original bet is +EV and you can afford the loss, letting it ride is mathematically optimal long-term.
- Small guaranteed profits may not be worth sacrificing a potentially big win.
- Professional bettors rarely hedge unless it's a life-changing amount.