What is a Hedge Bet?
A hedge bet is a second wager placed on the opposite outcome of your original bet to reduce risk or guarantee profit. Think of it as buying insurance for your ticket. Instead of leaving your fate to chance, you're locking in a portion (or all) of your potential winnings.
Hedging is most common in these situations:
- Futures bets that have gained value (e.g., you bet on a team to win the Super Bowl and they made the playoffs)
- Parlays where all but one leg has won
- Pre-game bets where live odds have shifted significantly in your favor
The Hedge Bet Formula
To calculate the perfect hedge for equal profit on both outcomes:
Hedge Stake = (Original Payout) / (Hedge Decimal Odds + 1)
For example, if your original bet pays $500 and the hedge odds are +150 (2.50 decimal):
- Hedge Stake: $500 / (2.50 + 1) = $500 / 3.50 = $142.86
This ensures you profit the same amount regardless of which side wins.
Real-World Example: Super Bowl Hedge
Let's walk through a complete hedging scenario:
Scenario: Before the season, you bet $100 on the Eagles to win the Super Bowl at +2000. They made it to the big game. Your ticket now pays $2,100 if they win.
Hedge opportunity: The Chiefs (opponents) are +110 on the moneyline.
- Without hedging: You win $2,000 if Eagles win, lose $100 if they lose
- With an Equal Profit hedge:
- Hedge Stake: $2,100 / 3.10 = $677.42 on Chiefs +110
- If Eagles win: $2,000 - $677.42 = $1,322.58 profit
- If Chiefs win: ($677.42 × 1.10) - $100 = $645.16 profit
- Result: You guarantee $645-$1,322 profit instead of risking your $100
Hedging Strategies Explained
1. Equal Profit Strategy
This is the classic hedge. It calculates the exact amount to bet so you walk away with the exact same profit regardless of which side wins.
- Best for: Maximum risk aversion. You want to lock in a guaranteed win.
- Trade-off: You sacrifice the maximum potential payout of your original ticket.
2. Break Even Strategy
This calculates a hedge bet just large enough to cover your original stake if the hedge wins. If your original bet wins, you maximize your profit.
- Best for: "Playing with house money". You strictly want to eliminate the risk of losing money.
- Trade-off: If the hedge wins, you make $0 profit (but lose nothing).
3. Partial Hedge Strategy
Use the slider to hedge a percentage of the "Equal Profit" amount. For example, a 50% hedge locks in half the guaranteed profit while leaving more upside on your original bet.
- Best for: Finding a middle ground between risk and reward.
- Trade-off: You can still lose money (or make less profit) depending on the outcome.
When You Shouldn't Hedge
- Hedging reduces your expected value (you pay vig on both bets).
- If your original bet is +EV and you can afford the loss, letting it ride is mathematically optimal long-term.
- Small guaranteed profits may not be worth sacrificing a potentially big win.
- Professional bettors rarely hedge unless it's a life-changing amount.
Frequently Asked Questions
What's the difference between hedging and cashing out?
Both achieve similar goals, but hedging is almost always better. When you cash out, the sportsbook charges a fee (vig) on the offer. When you hedge at a different book, you often get better odds and keep more profit. Use our Cash Out Calculator to compare the two options.
Does hedging guarantee profit?
Yes, if done correctly at the right time. An "Equal Profit" hedge guarantees you walk away with money regardless of the outcome. However, you must place the hedge bet before the game starts—you can't hedge after the final whistle.
How do I find the best hedge odds?
Shop multiple sportsbooks. The hedge side odds vary between books, and even small differences matter. For example, +105 vs +115 on a $500 hedge is a $50 difference. Check out our Line Shopping Guide for tips.
Should I hedge my parlay?
If your parlay has one leg remaining and represents significant value, hedging can lock in guaranteed profit. The decision depends on the potential payout, your risk tolerance, and how much the hedge would cost. A $10 parlay paying $500 might be worth letting ride, but a $100 parlay paying $5,000 might be worth hedging.
Know When to Hedge
TrueEdge tracks line movement and alerts you when your bets have gained value—the perfect time to consider a hedge.
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