What is Closing Line Value (CLV)? The Sharp Bettor's Guide to Measuring Real Skill

You just went 7-3 on your picks last week. Great week, right?

Not necessarily.

That 70% hit rate feels great—until you realize you might have gotten lucky. Or worse, you might have left money on the table by betting lines that were already sharp.

Here's what professional bettors know that most recreational bettors don't: your win rate is almost meaningless over small samples. You can go 8-2 through pure luck. You can go 4-6 despite making excellent bets.

So how do the sharps actually measure skill?

Closing Line Value (CLV).

CLV is the single most reliable indicator of betting ability. It's the metric sportsbooks use to identify sharp bettors. It's what separates the 2-3% of bettors who profit long-term from everyone else.

And if you're serious about making money betting on sports, you need to understand it.

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What is Closing Line Value (CLV)?

Closing Line Value is the difference between the odds you bet and the odds at the time the market closes (right before the game starts).

In simple terms: Did you get a better number than the final number?

Let's break this down with a concrete example.

On Tuesday, you bet the Kansas City Chiefs -3 at -110. By Sunday morning (right before kickoff), the line has moved to Chiefs -4.5 at -110.

What happened? The market determined that the Chiefs should be favored by more than 3 points. Sharp money, injury news, weather updates, and all available information got priced into the line—and it moved 1.5 points against your position.

But you locked in -3 on Tuesday. You beat the closing line by 1.5 points. That's positive CLV.

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Why the Closing Line is the Market's Best Estimate

The closing line isn't just any number—it's the sharpest number the market produces.

Here's why:

1. All available information is priced in. By game time, injury reports are finalized, weather is known, lineup changes are confirmed, and any relevant news has been absorbed by the market.

2. Sharp money has had its say. Professional bettors—syndicates with six-figure bankrolls, data scientists running proprietary models, former oddsmakers who know where lines are soft—have all had the opportunity to bet. Their money moves lines.

3. The vig gets squeezed out. As more information and betting action flows in, the line converges toward the "true" probability. Market efficiency increases.

Think of it this way: the closing line is like the final grade on an exam. It's the market's best guess at what "correct" looks like. If you consistently get better numbers than the final line, you're beating the most efficient prediction model in sports.

This is why CLV matters more than win rate. Your win rate can be lucky. Your CLV cannot be faked.

If you're consistently making positive EV bets, your CLV should be positive over time. CLV is the ultimate validation that you're actually finding edge rather than getting lucky.

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How to Calculate Closing Line Value

Calculating CLV depends on the bet type. Let's break it down for the most common scenarios.

For Point Spreads

The simplest method: count the points that moved in your favor.

Example:

• Your bet: Eagles -3 (-110)
• Closing line: Eagles -4.5 (-110)
• CLV: +1.5 points

The line moved 1.5 points in your favor. You got a better number than the market determined was correct.

Key numbers matter more in NFL. In football, not all points are equal. The numbers 3 and 7 are crucial because they represent the most common margins of victory (field goal and touchdown). Getting the better side of 3 or 7 is worth more than getting the better side of, say, 4.5 to 5.5. If you need a refresher on how odds work, see our guide on how to read betting odds.

For Moneylines

With moneylines, you need to convert to implied probability.

Formula: Your Implied Probability - Closing Implied Probability = CLV %

Example:

• Your bet: Patriots +150 (implied probability: 40%)
• Closing odds: Patriots +120 (implied probability: 45.5%)
• CLV: 45.5% - 40% = +5.5%

You got the Patriots at 40% implied probability, but the market closed them at 45.5%. That's 5.5% of positive CLV—the market thought they had a better chance than your odds implied.

Use our Fair Odds Calculator to calculate no-vig closing lines for more accurate CLV measurements.

For Totals (Over/Under)

Same principle as spreads—count the points moved.

Example:

• Your bet: Over 48.5 (-110)
• Closing line: Over 50.5 (-110)
• CLV: +2 points

The total moved up 2 points after you bet the Over. You beat the closing line significantly.

Once you know your CLV percentage, you can use our CLV Calculator to track your bets, or our EV Calculator to see how that translates to expected profit.

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Why CLV Matters More Than Your Win Rate

This is the most counterintuitive—and most important—concept in sharp betting.

Win rate can be lucky. CLV cannot.

Consider two bettors over 100 bets:

• Bettor A: 55% win rate, -2% average CLV
• Bettor B: 48% win rate, +3% average CLV

Most people would assume Bettor A is the better bettor—they're winning more than half their bets! But experienced handicappers know Bettor B is the one actually making money long-term.

Why? Because Bettor A is betting after sharp money has already moved the lines. They're taking the worse number on every bet. Their 55% win rate is variance—they're running hot against bad odds. Over 1,000 bets, they'll regress and lose.

Bettor B is consistently getting the best of the number. Their 48% win rate is running cold—given their edge, they should be winning more. Over 1,000 bets, they'll profit as variance evens out.

Here's a quote sharp bettors live by: "I'd rather be 45% with +3% CLV than 55% with -2% CLV."

Metric	Sample Size Needed	What It Measures	Can Be Luck?
Win Rate	500-1,000+ bets	Outcomes	Yes, highly
CLV	200-500+ bets	Process quality	No
ROI	1,000+ bets	Profit margin	Somewhat

This is why sportsbooks use CLV to identify sharp bettors. They don't care if you won your last 10 bets—they care if you consistently beat the closing line. Bettors with sustained positive CLV get their limits cut because the book knows they're taking money from the house's edge.

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Real Example: Measuring CLV on an NFL Spread

Let's walk through a complete CLV analysis on an NFL spread bet.

The Setup

On Wednesday, you identify Eagles -3 as a value bet:

• Philadelphia's defensive line is generating pressure at an elite rate (top 5 in sack rate)
• Washington's offensive line has allowed 15 sacks in the last 4 games
• Weather forecast shows 15-20mph winds, which historically favors run-heavy teams
• Eagles are 4-1 ATS at home this season

You bet Eagles -3 (-110) for $110 to win $100.

Line Movement Through the Week

Over the next few days, sharp money pours in on Philadelphia:

• Wednesday: Opens at -3
• Thursday: Moves to -3.5 after sharp action
• Friday: Injury report confirms Washington's starting tackle is out
• Saturday: Line reaches -4 across most books
• Sunday (close): Closes at -4.5 (-110)

The Result: Understanding CLV Independent of Outcome

Final score: Eagles 24, Commanders 21. Philadelphia wins by 3.

Here's where CLV gets interesting:

• Your bet at -3: PUSH (you get your money back)
• Closing line bettors at -4.5: LOSS

Even though you didn't technically "win" this bet, you made a GREAT bet. Your +1.5 points of CLV was the difference between a push and a loss. Over thousands of bets, those 1.5 points add up to significant profit.

Now imagine the Eagles win by 7. You win at -3, and the -4.5 bettors also win. Does that mean both bets were equally good? No—you still had +1.5 points of CLV. You got a better number. Over time, that edge compounds.

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How to Track Your Closing Line Value

Tracking CLV requires discipline, but it's the only way to honestly assess your betting skill.

Manual Method

For every bet, record:

1. Your betting odds (line and juice)
2. The closing odds (line and juice)
3. Calculate the difference

After 200+ bets, calculate your average CLV. Positive = you're beating the market. Negative = the market is beating you.

Spreadsheet Approach

Create columns for:

• Date
• Bet (team/player, line, odds)
• Your Odds
• Closing Odds
• CLV (points or %)
• Result (W/L/P)

This allows you to analyze patterns: Which sports give you the most CLV? What day of the week do you bet with the most edge? Are you better at spreads or totals?

The Sample Size Rule

You need at least 200 bets to draw meaningful conclusions about your CLV.

Over 50 bets, you might have +2% CLV and be down money (variance). Or you might have -1% CLV and be up money (luck). The sample is too small.

Over 500+ bets, your CLV becomes highly predictive of long-term results. Positive CLV = profitable bettor. Negative CLV = adjust your approach.

Combine positive CLV tracking with proper bankroll management for optimal long-term results.

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Common CLV Tracking Mistakes

Even bettors who understand CLV often make these errors:

1. Only Tracking When You Win

This is survivorship bias. You remember the bet where you got Eagles -3 and it closed at -7. You forget the bet where you got Cowboys +2 and it closed at +4.

Track every single bet. Your average CLV across all bets—wins, losses, and pushes—is what matters.

2. Ignoring the Vig

If you bet at -110 and the line closes at -115, did you beat the close? Technically the line didn't move, but you got better juice.

For the most accurate CLV calculation, convert odds to no-vig probabilities before comparing. Use our Fair Odds Calculator to strip out the vig.

3. Drawing Conclusions from Small Samples

You had +5% CLV over 30 bets last month. Great! But that's not enough data to conclude anything. You could be +5% on 30 bets through pure noise.

Wait for hundreds of bets before making changes to your process.

4. Confusing Steam Moves with CLV

"Steam" is when a line moves rapidly due to sharp action. Some bettors try to chase steam by betting right after they see sharp movement.

The problem? By the time you bet, the value is already gone. Betting AFTER sharp money moves the line doesn't give you CLV—the sharps already took it.

To have positive CLV, you need to bet BEFORE the line moves.

5. Not Accounting for Key Numbers

In NFL betting, moving from -2.5 to -3 is worth more than moving from -4.5 to -5.5. The numbers 3 and 7 matter disproportionately because so many NFL games land on those margins.

A sophisticated CLV calculation weights key numbers appropriately. Getting the right side of 3 could be worth 2-3% edge on its own.

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How TrueEdge Validates Edge with CLV

At TrueEdge, we don't just tell you which bets to make—we prove our methodology works.

We will track CLV on every single pick from day one.

Here's our commitment:

1. We'll release picks when we identify edge—not right before game time when lines are sharpest.
2. We'll record the line at the time of release and the closing line.
3. We'll calculate CLV for every pick—wins, losses, and pushes.
4. We'll publish our aggregate CLV so you can verify our edge is real.

Our goal isn't just to win bets—it's to consistently beat the closing line. A pick that loses can still be a good pick if it had positive CLV. A pick that wins can still be a bad pick if it had negative CLV.

Our 10-factor analysis methodology is designed to identify value before the market catches up. We analyze matchups, usage, weather, line movement, and more to find edges that haven't yet been priced into the line.

Transparency is our commitment from launch. We'll show you our CLV results—not just our win rate. Because CLV is what actually matters.

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Frequently Asked Questions About Closing Line Value

Q: What does positive CLV mean?
A: Positive CLV means you got your bet at better odds than the closing line. For spreads, the line moved in your direction (you got more points on a dog or gave fewer points on a favorite). For moneylines, your implied probability was lower than the closing implied probability. Positive CLV is the strongest signal of long-term profitability.

Q: What does negative CLV mean?
A: Negative CLV means the closing line was better than the odds you got. If you bet a team at -3 and it closes at -2, you got a worse number. Consistent negative CLV suggests you're betting after sharp money has moved the line, or you're taking sides the market correctly devalued.

Q: How many bets do I need to measure CLV accurately?
A: At minimum, 200-500 bets. Over smaller samples, variance can obscure whether you're genuinely beating the closing line. Track every bet consistently and calculate your average CLV percentage across all bets—not just the ones you won.

Q: Can I have positive CLV and still lose money?
A: Yes, in the short term. Variance affects outcomes, so you can have excellent CLV over 50-100 bets and still be down money. Over thousands of bets, positive CLV almost always converts to profit. That's why sample size matters so much.

Q: Why do sportsbooks limit bettors with positive CLV?
A: Sportsbooks use CLV as their primary tool to identify sharp bettors. If you consistently beat the closing line, you're taking money from the book's edge. Books would rather have action from "square" bettors who provide negative CLV. Sharp bettors face reduced limits, slower bet acceptance, or account restrictions.

Q: Is CLV the same as expected value (EV)?
A: They're related but different. EV is your projected profit based on the difference between true probability and implied probability at bet time. CLV measures the difference between your bet price and closing price. Positive CLV is strong evidence your bet was +EV, because the closing line represents the market's best probability estimate.

Q: What's a good CLV percentage to target?
A: Professional bettors typically average 2-4% CLV across all bets. Even 1% consistent CLV leads to profit after accounting for vig. Elite bettors might achieve 5%+ in specific markets, but this is rare. Any sustained positive CLV above 0% means you're beating the market.

Q: How do I calculate CLV on player props?
A: For props with lines (Over/Under 22.5 points), calculate CLV like totals—count points moved. For props with only odds (first TD scorer), convert both your bet odds and closing odds to implied probability, then subtract. Positive difference = positive CLV.

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The Bottom Line

Closing Line Value isn't just another metric—it's the only honest measure of your betting skill.

Win rate can be lucky. ROI can be lucky. But CLV cannot be faked.

If you're consistently beating the closing line, you're demonstrating that you can identify value before the market figures it out. That's the definition of sharp betting.

Key takeaways:

1. Stop celebrating win rate. It's mostly noise over small samples.
2. Start tracking CLV on every bet. Record your odds and closing odds religiously.
3. Aim for sustained positive CLV. Even 1-2% average CLV compounds to significant profit.
4. Bet early when you identify value. Waiting for game day means sharps have already moved the line.
5. Line shop to get the best odds. Getting -108 instead of -110 helps you beat the closing line. Learn more about line shopping strategies.
6. Trust the process. Individual losses don't matter if your CLV is positive.

The sportsbooks know this. Now you do too.