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Expected Value (EV) Calculator

Instant Edge Finder. Know exactly when to bet. Find out if your strategy has a mathematical Edge.

Bet Details

$
The odds the bookie is giving you.
Chance of winning. Where do I get this?

Result Analysis

👆 ENTER ODDS
Expected Value
EV ($) $0.00
Performance
ROI 0.00%
💡
Positive EV means you make profit in the long run.

What is Expected Value (EV)?

Expected Value (EV) is the single most important number in sports betting. It tells you how much you can expect to win or lose on a specific bet over the long run. In simple terms, it measures the gap between what the sportsbook pays and true probability of winning.

If a bet has Positive (+) EV, it means the Sportsbook is paying you more than the true odds imply. This is the mathematical definition of "An Edge". If it has Negative (-) EV, you are paying a tax to the bookie.

The EV Formula

The math behind expected value is simple but powerful:

(Probability of Winning × Profit) - (Probability of Losing × Stake) = EV

For example, if you bet $100 on a coin flip (50% chance) but get paid $110 for a win:

  • Win Scenario: 50% chance × $110 profit = $55
  • Loss Scenario: 50% chance × $100 stake = $50
  • Calculation: $55 - $50 = +$5.00 EV

How to Use This Calculator

  1. Enter the Sportsbook Odds (the line you want to bet).
  2. Enter your True Probability. You can enter this as a Percentage (e.g. 55%) or as "Fair Odds" (e.g. -110) if you are comparing vs another sharp book.
  3. Look for the GREEN signal. A positive number means the bet is profitable in the long run.

Strategic Betting Guide

Finding +EV bets is only half the battle. You also need to know how to manage your bankroll.

  • Trust the Process: +EV betting doesn't guarantee you will win today. It guarantees you will win over 1,000 bets. this is known as the Law of Large Numbers.
  • Volume is King: The more +EV bets you place, the closer your actual results will match your expected mathematical edge.
  • Don't Force It: If the calculator shows negative EV (Red), do not bet. There is no such thing as a "hunch" that beats math.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is a good EV ROI?

Professional bettors typically aim for an ROI (Return on Investment) between 3% and 7%. While this may sound small, compounding this edge daily over thousands of bets leads to massive returns.

Does +EV guarantee I will win this bet?

No. A +EV bet means you have a mathematical advantage, but you can still lose the individual wager. Think of it like being the Casino: you might lose a hand of Blackjack, but over a year, the House always wins.

Where do I find "True Probability"?

You can estimate true probability by looking at "Sharp Books" (sportsbooks that accept high limits and move lines aggressively) and removing their vig using our Fair Odds Calculator.

Don't Guess. Know the Edge.

We analyze historical hit rates, matchup data, and market inefficiencies to find the True Edge.

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