What is Closing Line Value (CLV)?
Closing Line Value (CLV) measures whether you got better odds than where the line closed at game time. The closing line is considered the most accurate reflection of true probability because it incorporates all available information—sharp money, injury news, weather, and public betting patterns.
If you consistently beat the closing line, you're demonstrating sharp betting behavior. Professional bettors track CLV because it's the only metric that correlates with long-term profitability, regardless of short-term win rates.
Why CLV Matters More Than Win Rate
You can have a 60% win rate and still be -EV if you're always on the wrong side of line movement. Conversely, you can have a 48% win rate and still be +EV if you're consistently getting +3% CLV.
Long-term profitability correlates with CLV, not win rate. This is why professional bettors focus on beating the close rather than just winning individual bets.
How to Calculate CLV
The formula for Closing Line Value is straightforward:
- Convert both your odds and the closing odds to implied probability
- Calculate CLV = Closing Implied Prob - Your Implied Prob
- Positive CLV = you got value; Negative CLV = you chased steam
Example Calculation
You bet at -110 (52.38% implied probability). The line closed at -130 (56.52% implied probability).
- Your Implied Prob: 52.38%
- Closing Implied Prob: 56.52%
- CLV: 56.52% - 52.38% = +4.14%
This is positive CLV—you beat the closing line by 4.14 percentage points.
What's a Good CLV?
- Professional bettors average 2-4% CLV over thousands of bets
- Recreational bettors are often -2% to -5% (always getting the worst of it)
- Even 1% consistent CLV is profitable long-term
- Negative CLV means you're consistently paying a premium compared to the closing number
Frequently Asked Questions
What if I bet after the line moved in my favor?
If the line moved in your favor before you bet, that's positive CLV. For example, if you bet at -110 but the line closed at -130, you got better odds than the market consensus. This is a sign of sharp betting.
Does positive CLV guarantee I'll win?
No. CLV measures whether you got value, not whether you'll win the individual bet. A bet with +3% CLV can still lose, but over hundreds of bets, positive CLV correlates strongly with profitability.
How many bets do I need to track for meaningful CLV data?
Professional bettors track CLV over hundreds or thousands of bets. A sample size of 50-100 bets starts to show meaningful patterns, but the more data you have, the more reliable your CLV average becomes.
What causes lines to move?
Lines move due to sharp money (professional bettors), injury news, weather changes, or public betting patterns. When sharp money comes in, sportsbooks adjust lines to balance their risk. The closing line reflects the market's best estimate of true probability.
Track Your Edge Over Time
TrueEdge helps you identify +EV opportunities and track your CLV performance automatically.